On 3 March 2026, voters in the Ayawaso East Constituency will head to the polls in a parliamentary by-election that has quickly become one of the most closely watched contests in the country.
A recent projection by Global InfoAnalytics places Hon. Baba Jamal of the National Democratic Congress at 75.3 percent, well ahead of Baba Ali Yousif of the New Patriotic Party at 21.4 percent, with the remaining candidates polling in low single digits.
On paper, that looks decisive. But to understand whether this projection reflects momentum or structure, one must step back and examine both the national by election record and the unique political identity of Ayawaso East itself.
Across the Fourth Republic since 1993, Ghana has held 35 parliamentary by elections. Only eight have resulted in a change of party control. That produces a flip rate of 22.9 percent and a retention rate of 77.1 percent. In other words, nearly three out of every four by elections return the seat to the party that previously held it.
Even more striking is what happens when a vacancy is caused by the death of a sitting Member of Parliament as it is the case of Ayawaso East following the death of Naser Toure Mahama. In such cases, the retention rate rises above 83 percent. Voters tend to choose continuity. Party structures remain intact. Community identification with the party often deepens rather than weakens.
Ayawaso East sits squarely within that historical logic.
According to the constituency profile in the briefing document
Ayawaso East is a predominantly Muslim constituency centred around Nima and Maamobi, extending into parts of Kanda. It is one of Ghana’s strongest urban Zongo communities, with the National Mosque located within its boundaries. Religious identity and social cohesion are not peripheral factors here. They are foundational.
Since 2000, every Member of Parliament elected in Ayawaso East has been Muslim
No non-Muslim candidate has won the seat in more than twenty-five years. That continuity is not accidental. It reflects the constituency’s demographic composition and collective identity.
Historically, Ayawaso East has been NDC leaning but competitive at moments. In 1996, Farouk Braimah of the NDC won with 53.12 percent. In the highly competitive 2000 election, Dr Mustapha Ahmed secured victory with 44.77 percent, defeating the NPP candidate Kofi Wayo by just 553 votes. That election remains one of the tightest in the constituency’s history. By 2004 and 2008, margins widened again in favour of the NDC.
From 2012 onward, the seat became closely associated with Naser Toure Mahama of the NDC. The figures are consistent and revealing. In 2012 he won with 65.44 percent. In 2016 he secured 62.10 percent. In 2020 he maintained 61.18 percent. In 2024 he won with 22,139 votes against 9,110 for the NPP, with a total of 31,249 votes cast.
This is not a marginal seat. It is structurally aligned.When this local history is placed beside the national by election record, the Global InfoAnalytics projection begins to look less like an outlier and more like a reflection of entrenched patterns. A projected 75.3 percent for the NDC candidate may appear dramatic, but the constituency’s recent general election averages have consistently exceeded sixty percent for the same party.
The opposition would need more than incremental gains to overturn that structure. It would require a fundamental shift in turnout dynamics, voter mobilisation and cross community persuasion. Historically, such reversals are rare in Ghanaian by elections. Out of 35 contests since 1993, only eight have produced party flips. Most of those occurred in constituencies that were already swing seats or experiencing significant political turbulence.
Ayawaso East does not fit that profile. Its electoral trajectory shows consolidation rather than volatility. Even during the ultra-competitive 2000 moment, the seat did not change hands.
The deeper lesson is that by elections in Ghana are not miniature referenda on the national government. They are deeply localised contests shaped by demographic identity, party organisation and historical loyalty. Polls can capture mood, but structure often determines outcome.
As 3 March 2026 approaches, the analytical baseline is clear. National data shows a strong incumbency effect. Death related vacancies reinforce retention. Ayawaso East’s demographic and electoral history show consistent NDC dominance, especially over the past twelve years. The recent poll projection aligns with both patterns.
The real question may not be whether the seat flips. History suggests that is statistically unlikely. The more meaningful test will be whether the final margin confirms the long-term trend or reveals subtle shifts in urban voter behaviour.
For now, the weight of history, identity and data converge in one direction. Ayawaso East has been structurally stable for decades. The 2026 by election appears poised to reinforce that pattern rather than disrupt it.
