A statistics professor has raised concerns over the methodology used in the Ghana National Voter Preference and Electoral Behaviour Survey 2026 by Africa Policy Lens, cautioning that the findings should not be treated as a full national electoral forecast.
Prof. Ezekiel Nii Noye Nortey, PhD, says although the survey is relevant and useful, its conclusions must be interpreted carefully because of questions around sampling, weighting, response rates, measurement validation and model testing.
The APL poll places the New Patriotic Party ahead of the National Democratic Congress in current voter preference. According to the report, the NPP records 48.8 percent support, while the NDC records 37.6 percent. This gives the NPP an 11.2 percentage point lead among respondents.
The survey was conducted between May 23 and May 30, 2026. It gathered 6,483 valid responses from eligible voters across all sixteen regions of Ghana through a nationwide SMS polling platform.
Africa Policy Lens says the survey was designed to assess political preferences, electoral participation, economic conditions and public perception of the country’s direction.
The report was authored by H.M. Ayerakwa, G. Domfe, Dr J.J. Zaato and M.O. Awuku. APL describes itself as a Ghana based public policy think tank focused on governance, democratic accountability, economic policy, public finance, livelihoods, institutional trust and electoral analysis.
Beyond the headline figures, the poll says the NPP has stronger voter retention. About 90.1 percent of respondents who voted for the NPP in 2024 said they would vote for the party again. For the NDC, voter retention stood at 77.9 percent.
The report also suggests that 11.4 percent of respondents who voted for the NDC in 2024 now say they would vote for the NPP, while only 3.2 percent of previous NPP voters now say they would vote for the NDC.
The economy also stands out as a major issue. The survey records a national Economic Anxiety Index of 4.11 on a five-point scale, showing strong concern over jobs, cost of living, household finances and general economic conditions.
The report further shows a mixed national mood. It says 43 percent of respondents believe Ghana is moving in the right direction, 39 percent believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 18 percent are unsure.
Women and young voters also emerge as important groups. Female respondents were more likely to support the NDC and more likely to be undecided. Young voters, especially those aged 18 to 24, showed weaker party loyalty and higher uncertainty, with employment and future opportunities listed among their major concerns.
But Prof. Nortey says the biggest issue is not the size of the sample, but how the sample was selected.
According to him, a large sample does not automatically make a survey representative. He argues that the report does not sufficiently explain how respondents were identified, whether the sampling was probability based, how urban and rural voters were captured, and whether the final sample properly reflects Ghana’s voting population.
He also raises concern about the voluntary SMS method used for the poll. He says such surveys may attract people who are more politically interested, more available or more willing to respond, while leaving out others who may think differently.
Prof. Nortey further questions the absence of clear weighting. He says a national voter survey should apply weights for region, gender, age and urban or rural residence to correct possible imbalances in the sample.
He also says the report should have explained how its Economic Anxiety Index and National Mood Index were constructed and whether reliability tests were conducted.
On the regression analysis, Prof. Nortey warns against treating the findings as proof of cause and effect. He says the results show associations, not necessarily that economic perception directly causes support for one party.
He also questions the very high predictive power reported in parts of the study, saying this may raise concerns about overfitting unless the model is properly validated.
Despite the criticisms, Prof. Nortey acknowledges that the APL study has value. He says its focus on voter behaviour, economic concerns, youth sentiment and electoral participation is important.
His conclusion, however, is that the poll should be read as an opinion survey with explanatory modelling, not as a definitive national electoral forecast.
In simple terms, the APL poll gives the NPP a lead and points to the economy as the major political battleground. But Prof. Nortey’s critique reminds readers that in polling, the numbers matter, but the method behind the numbers matters just as much.
By Wisdom Safo
