Beyond the pass rate: What WASSCE volatility tells us about learning in Ghana

Introduction

Beyond examining whether WASSCE pass rates are rising or falling, it is important to assess the stability of performance across examination years. Large year-to-year fluctuations may indicate that improvements are not sustained and may also raise questions about the comparability of examination outcomes over time, the need to drill down the data to school level, understand the naunces around national WASSCE averages and be guided with policy recomendations. This analysis therefore examines the volatility of pass rates in English Language, Core Mathematics, Integrated Science and Social Studies between 2020 and 2026, using a relative volatility index and annual percentage-point changes to identify the subjects with the greatest instability and draws implications for policy directions.

Source: WAEC 2020 – 2026

Analysis of WASSCE Core Subject Performance, 2020 – 2026

The performance pattern from 2020 to 2026 is characterised more by substantial year-to-year fluctuations than by a sustained upward trend. The average pass rate across the four core subjects increased from 59.97% in 2020 to a peak of 69.73% in 2023, declined to 66.67% in 2024, fell sharply to 57.82% in 2025, and recovered to 65.82% in 2026. Thus, although the 2026 performance represents an 8.0 percentage-point recovery from 2025, it remains 3.91 percentage points below the 2023 peak.

Subject-specific performance

English Language showed considerable improvement during the first part of the period. The pass rate increased from 57.34% in 2020 to 73.11% in 2023, the highest recorded for the subject. However, performance subsequently weakened to 69.52% in 2024, 69.00% in 2025 and 62.40% in 2026. The decline of about 10.7 percentage points between 2023 and 2026 suggests that the gains achieved up to 2023 have not been sustained.

Core Mathematics presents perhaps the greatest concern. Performance declined from 65.71% in 2020 to 54.11% in 2021, recovered gradually to 66.86% in 2024, and then collapsed to only 48.73% in 2025. Although the pass rate recovered substantially to 60.75% in 2026, it remains below both the 2020 and 2024 levels. Across the seven-year period, Mathematics recorded the lowest average subject pass rate, approximately 60.0%, indicating a persistent weakness in numeracy outcomes.

Integrated Science has been comparatively more stable, although its performance has also fluctuated. From a low of 52.53% in 2020, the pass rate increased sharply to 65.70% in 2021 and peaked at 66.82% in 2023. It subsequently declined to 58.77% in 2024 and 57.74% in 2025, before recovering to 62.08% in 2026. The 2026 result is therefore encouraging, but remains below the 2023 peak.

Social Studies has generally been the strongest-performing core subject, averaging approximately 69.1% over the period. Pass rates rose steadily from 64.31% in 2020 to 76.76% in 2023, before declining to 71.53% in 2024 and sharply to 55.82% in 2025. The subsequent increase to 78.04% in 2026, a remarkable 22.22 percentage-point increase in a single year, produced the highest subject pass rate observed anywhere in the seven-year series.

What the pattern suggests

Three issues stand out. First, there is no evidence of consistent improvement across the core subjects. Performance improves for a few years and then deteriorates, sometimes dramatically. For example, the average core pass rate moved from 69.73% in 2023 to 57.82% in 2025, a decline of almost 12 percentage points in only two years.

Second, the data reveal a particularly important literacy and numeracy concern. In 2026, only 62.40% passed English Language and 60.75% passed Core Mathematics. Put differently, roughly 38% failed to attain the pass threshold in English and 39% in Mathematics. Given the foundational role of these subjects in further education, employment and lifelong learning, these levels deserve considerably more policy attention than the headline improvement in the overall average. Third, the extreme movements in some subjects should encourage caution in interpreting annual WASSCE pass rates as direct measures of changes in the underlying quality of education. For example, Social Studies moved from 55.82% in 2025 to 78.04% in 2026, while Mathematics moved from 66.86% in 2024 to 48.73% in 2025 and back to 60.75% in 2026. Such volatility may reflect changes in student learning, but it may also partly reflect differences in examination difficulty, question composition, marking standards, cohort characteristics, individual school performance or other assessment-related factors. Consequently, year-on-year pass-rate comparisons should ideally be complemented with appropriately equated measures of achievement.

Descriptive Volatility Analysis

The descriptive volatility analysis assesses the extent to which WASSCE core-subject pass rates fluctuated from year to year between 2020 and 2026. It focuses on the magnitude and consistency of these changes to identify which subjects exhibited relatively stable performance and which experienced greater instability over the period. Measures such as the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, range, and mean absolute year-to-year change were used. Using the 2020 – 2026 data, the results are:

Table 1. Descriptive Volatility Analysis 

The analysis in Table 1 shows substantial year-to-year instability in WASSCE core-subject performance. Social Studies recorded the greatest overall volatility, with the highest standard deviation, coefficient of variation and range, while Core Mathematics exhibited particularly sharp annual swings, including an 18.13-percentage-point decline between 2024 and 2025. Integrated Science was the most stable subject, although it still experienced notable fluctuations, while English Language showed moderate volatility. Overall, the results indicate that WASSCE core-subject performance has been characterised by fluctuations rather than a consistent and sustained trajectory of improvement. Further analysis was carried out using Mean Absolute Year-on-Year Change alongside standard deviation. Standard deviation measures dispersion around the seven-year mean, whereas mean absolute annual change captures the actual instability candidates and policymakers experience from one examination year to the next. On that measure:

Social Studies: 9.27 pp > Mathematics: 9.08 pp > Science: 5.70 pp > English: 5.50 pp.

The volatility analysis reveals considerable instability in WASSCE core-subject pass rates between 2020 and 2026. Social Studies and Core Mathematics recorded the largest year-to-year fluctuations, while Integrated Science was comparatively more stable. The magnitude of these fluctuations raises questions about the sustainability of learning outcomes and, importantly, about the extent to which annual pass rates are comparable across examination years. Consequently, changes in pass rates should not be interpreted solely as changes in educational quality without accounting for possible variations in examination difficulty and other assessment-related factors.

A useful way to extend the analysis is to construct a Relative Volatility Index (RVI) and then examine the actual year-to-year movements. Because there is no universally established “WASSCE Volatility Index,” I would use a transparent measure:

The higher the index, the less stable the subject’s pass rate has been relative to its typical level.

 Table 2. Volatility Index and ranking, 2020–2026

This produces an important distinction. Social Studies has the largest absolute annual movement, averaging 9.27 percentage points, but Core Mathematics is the most volatile relative to its average level of performance. Its volatility index of 15.15% means that a typical annual movement is equivalent to roughly 15% of its average pass rate.

Table 3. Year-on-year change in pass rates

Note: Annual changes in pass rates, measured in percentage points. Positive values indicate improvement; negative values indicate deterioration.

Core Mathematics showed the greatest instability, with sharp declines in 2021 and 2025 followed by strong recoveries, making it the most volatile subject. Social Studies was also highly unstable, recording the largest single-year swing of 22.22 percentage points between 2025 and 2026. Integrated Science was relatively more stable, while English Language recorded the lowest overall volatility despite some notable fluctuations.

The 2025–2026 results highlight the instability in WASSCE core-subject performance. In 2025, Mathematics and Social Studies fell sharply by 18.13 and 15.71 percentage points, respectively, but both rebounded strongly in 2026 by 12.02 and 22.22 points. Science also improved, while English declined by 6.60 points. In sum, the pattern from 2020 – 2026 is one of significant year-to-year volatility rather than sustained improvement, raising questions about how much of the movement reflects actual learning versus changes in examination difficulty, cohort characteristics, school level performance or assessment conditions.

Policy implications

The policy implication is that Ghana should focus on improving and sustaining learning outcomes, especially in English Language and Core Mathematics, rather than relying mainly on national WASSCE pass rates. National averages can hide important differences between schools, so school-level analysis should become a routine part of performance monitoring. Schools with persistent low achievement or unusually high year-to-year volatility should be identified and supported with targeted teacher development, remedial programmes, instructional resources and stronger academic supervision. At the same time, large fluctuations in results should be investigated to determine whether they reflect changes in student learning, examination difficulty or other assessment-related factors. Overall, policy should move towards using national, regional, district and school-level evidence to achieve higher, more stable and more equitable learning outcomes across successive cohorts.

Reference
WAEC (2020 -2026). WASSCE Results. Accra: WAEC.

By Peter Anti Partey, PhD
[Lecturer, UCC; ED, IFEST_Ghana]