Those saying Global InfoAnalytics’s survey for the 2024 presidential election is too early, are not being fair to the poll, Political Marketing Analyst, Professor Kobby Mensah, has said.
With eight (8) clear months to the poll, the senior lecturer at the University of Ghana says the outcome of the survey is likely to change, especially when the political parties and candidates have not reach the intensity of their campaigns.
He says since the exercise was an opinion poll, people may not even reveal their real intentions, adding that campaign intensity is likely to also alter a lot of things, considering the fact that even a campaign song alone can direct where a person’s vote should go.
His comments come on the back of a research conducted by Global InfoAnalytics on how people intend to vote in the December presidential election.
Speaking on Ghana Tonight with Alfred Ocansey Monday, April 08, 2024, Prof. Kobby Mensah noted that he will not discount the “it’s too early” position, however, stakeholders should not forget the poll did not say the outcome is what would be replicated on the election day, but rather, what will likely, based on if elections were held at a particular period.
“We have what we call campaign intensity during the elections and I had always said that just campaign songs alone had influenced people and they feel a certain vibe around a certain candidate and a certain party and as a result influences their decision to vote so I will never discount that particular position that it’s too early.
“Clearly, Global InfoAnalytics didn’t say this is what will transpire in December. They said if elections were held today or that particular period, what would be the outcome and that’s what they are saying. So if you raise the argument that of course, eight clear months, I don’t think that you’re being fair to the poll,” he stated.
Prof. Mensah added that, “the poll didn’t say this is the result of December it says that if elections were held. It’s an opinion poll and clearly opinion poll also mean that people might not tell you the truth and so you take the result with a certain caution and you use it to work around what the poll says is your weaknesses.”
The latest national opinion poll organised by the Global InfoAnalytics for the 2024 presidential election placed the National Democratic Congress’s (NDC) John Dramani Mahama ahead of the governing New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
The survey report “shows the ruling party’s candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) trailing the main opposition candidate, John Dramani Mahama (JDM) in the race to lead the country in 2025. The poll shows JDM leads with 54.3%, DMB, 34.9%, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK), 7.5%, Nana Kwame Bediako, 2.3%, others, 1%.”
The poll outcome, –almost 20% difference –compared to results of previous elections and surveys conducted prior to the elections, shows this year’s contest is not as fierce as the previous editions, if the findings of this research is manifested at the end of the polls.
But the NPP has disagreed with the report. After releasing the first part of the poll last week, Director of Communications of the NPP, Richard Ahiagbah, asked Ghanaians not to put so much premium on it saying that the survey cannot be inclusive to Ghanaians.
“The value that we place on the outcome of this survey cannot be inclusive to the people of this country because the instrument itself can create problems due to people’s understanding of the questions asked.
“So therefore the answers they are giving, as to whether or not they are answering the question about the country moving in the right direction (which is relative when you translate into another language) is the issue. For me, the premium we should put on this should not be too high,” he said on Accra-based JoyNews.
