Ghana could face higher fuel import and production costs as global economic growth slows to 3.1% in 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
The Fund, in its October 2026 World Economic Outlook titled “Resilience under strain, urgent choices,” projects global growth to drop from 3.5% in 2025 before improving slightly to 3.4% in 2027.
It attributes the slowdown to geopolitical tensions, rising energy and food prices, trade disruptions and high public debt.
It also projects global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026, from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 4.1% in 2027. The IMF says higher energy and food costs could push up transport and production expenses and put pressure on households and businesses.
Middle East conflict poses major risk
The Fund has flagged the conflict in the Middle East and potential disruptions to energy supplies and shipping as key risks to the outlook.
It warns that further disruptions could drive oil and gas prices higher, intensify inflation and weaken growth, especially in countries that rely heavily on imported energy.
For Ghana, sustained increases in international oil prices could raise the cost of fuel imports and increase transport, electricity generation and production costs.
Sub-Saharan Africa to grow at 4.5%
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 4.5% in both 2026 and 2027.
The Fund, however, says countries in the region remain exposed to higher energy costs, food-price pressures, climate-related shocks and limited access to financing.
It notes that governments with little fiscal room may struggle to protect households and businesses without worsening their budget positions.
The regional projection does not represent a specific forecast for Ghana.
IMF cautions against broad subsidies
The IMF is urging governments to strengthen public finances, rebuild fiscal buffers and direct spending towards the most pressing needs.
It has cautioned against broad subsidies, price controls and tax cuts as tools for shielding consumers from higher living costs, saying such measures can be expensive, distort price signals and place additional pressure on government budgets.
Instead, the Fund is pushing for targeted support for vulnerable households. According to its analysis, price-suppressing measures can require between three and 22 times the public resources needed by targeted approaches to provide comparable protection.
For Ghana, the recommendation highlights the challenge of cushioning households against higher fuel and food prices while preserving funds for infrastructure and social protection.
The IMF also stressed the need for monetary policies that safeguard price stability, stronger revenue mobilisation, efficient public spending and sustainable debt management.
On technology, the Fund says investment linked to artificial intelligence and technology supply chains is supporting activity in some economies, but the gains remain concentrated. It warns that weaker-than-expected returns on AI investment could trigger a market correction.
IMF says its programme with Ghana recorded slippages in run-up to 2024 elections despite growth
