IMANI-Africa’s third episode of its Public Understanding and Literacy for Sentiment and Election analysis (PULSE) has revealed that the Vice President’s February 07 speech has almost tripled negative sentiments for him on social media.
The Monday, February 12, 2024 release which contains the analysis for this third episode covers data collated from January 15, 2024 to February 11, 2024.
Although members of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) believe the address at the University of Professional Studies, Accra (UPSA), was an event critical enough to propel the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, the data from the research has proven otherwise.
Whilst every 100 mentions of Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia on social media had 13.22% negative sentiments prior to the speech, the figure almost tripled after outlining his vision to Ghanaians.
“Public negative sentiment has almost tripled on social media since the #BawumiaSpeaks event from 13% to 35%. Before the event, total negative sentiments was 13.22% per every 100 Social Media mentions. After the speech, total negative sentiments had almost doubled to 35.71% per every 100 social media mentions. This is directly in proportion to mentions on social media made after the speech. This means that while there was a spike in commentary about the candidate, over a third of the commentary was negative, as against only just over 9% being positive,” the report detailed in some parts.
It further indicated that “public opinion on the two major candidates, former President John Dramani Mahama and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia were relatively unchanged up until the recent public address by Dr Mahamudu Bawumia on the 7th of February.”
The survey also revealed that the negative sentiments on social media did not affect only the candidate but the party also.
With the total mentions of the NPP doubling ahead of the NDC after the speech, the PULSE disclosed that the feat came with more negative sentiments for the ruling party.
“Purely negative sentiment over the period was a mixed bag for the NPP and NDC. Overall, over the period (January 15, 2024 to February 11, 2024.), there were twice more mentions of NPP over NDC. Proportionally however, the NPP had more negative mentions (21.71 per every 100 social media mentions) over the NDC (17.62 per every 100 social media mentions)” it noted.
The IMANI PULSE analyses are referenced from Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, Web, TikTok, Instagram, Podcasts and Newsfeeds.
Internet Penetration in Ghana, according to Statista, is approximately 50% of the total population, or 15.7 million. Out of this figure, approximately 6.7 million are on social media, with Ghanaian Facebook accounts alone totaling some 8.7 million users/accounts. About 90% of these social media users are potential and eligible voters who are aged between 18 and 64 years.
PULSE monitors primarily the main two contenders, the NPP and the NDC but added the sentiments and influence of the other parties; the PNC, CPP, ACP and PPP, as well as independent candidates like the Butterfly Movement, the New Force and other emerging forces on the landscape for its third episode.
The survey gathers information via main keywords but adapts to change as news themes change and analyse on keyword associations.
The Vice President’s February 07 speech necessitated the addition of keywords, #itispossible and #Bawumiaspeaks to analyse the impact of some of Dr. Bawumia’s statements made in more recent times as it also directly impacts on his campaign message as a whole.
Read the full report of the Episode 3 of the PULSE here.
Election 2024: IMANI Africa’s report places Mahama ahead of Bawumia in social media sentiments
