The latest national opinion poll organised by Global InfoAnalytics for the 2024 presidential election has placed the National Democratic Congress’s John Dramani Mahama ahead of the governing New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
The survey report “shows the ruling party’s candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) trailing the main opposition candidate, John Dramani Mahama (JDM) in the race to lead the country in 2025. The poll shows JDM leads with 54.3%, DMB, 34.9%, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK), 7.5%, Nana Kwame Bediako, 2.3%, others, 1%.”
The poll outcome, –almost 20% difference –compared to results of previous elections and surveys conducted prior to the elections, shows this year’s contest is not as fierce as the previous editions, if the findings of this research is manifested at the end of the polls.
The resignation of Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen from the New Patriotic Party to form the Movement for Change, could be one of the reasons for the NPP’s low performance since majority of the 7.5% of Ghanaians willing to vote for him are members of the NPP.
The poll also revealed that religion is not likely to play any major role in people’s choice of candidate.
For the first time in the history of Ghana’s Fourth Republic, one of the two major political parties is presenting a Muslim candidate for the presidency, unlike the previous elections where all candidates have been Christians.
“On whether religion will play any role on voters’ choice of candidate, 84% said religion is unlikely to play any role while 14% said it will play a role. In the previous quarter, nearly 24% said it will play a role, down 10%,” portions of the report contained.
Also, the research indicate that whilst the NPP surged in its support base in one of the three swing regions, the Central region, Bawumia “still trails JDM 45% to 51%” with Mahama’s support base shooting up in the Greater Accra and Western regions.”
“The poll also shows a disturbing outlook for the ruling government as the opposition leader extends his lead in the three critical swing regions (Greater Accra, Central and Western regions). Though JDM lost grounds in the Central region, his dominance in the Greater Accra and Western regions now stands at 66% and DMB, 28%, AKK, 5% and NKB, 1%,” the report clarified in addition.
Out of the 82 constituencies polled, John Mahama leads in 55 of them, whilst Dr. Bawumia leads in 26, with the two tying in one constituency.
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