A pollster and Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah has cautioned party researchers, communicators not to undermine polling data and pollsters following the outcome of New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 2026 presidential primary.
Mussa Dankwah’s Global InfoAnalytics had predicted Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to emerge victorious in the just-ended New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer race. However some party researchers also projected ahead of the election that Kennedy Agyapong will win the primary with him being the only candidate to secure 50+1 votes.
But after votes were counted on Saturday, December 31, 202, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerged victorious, securing 56.48 percent of valid votes and decisively defeating his closest contender, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, who polled 23.76 percent.
Providing a brief post-mortem of the flagbearer race in a Facebook post on Sunday, February 1, Mussa Dankwah said Dr. Bawumia’s scores were close to his prediction but only underperformed by just 0.5%.
On the other hand, Kennedy Agyapong missed the prediction by 4.5%, putting him outside the forecasted range by 1.5%.
“Compared to the prediction, DMB was dead on within the MoE, underperforming the prediction by just 0.5%. Ken on the other hand underperformed the prediction by 4.5%, that 1.5% outside the margin of error, proving our earlier conclusion that KOA’s poll numbers are very fluid and unstable in the last weeks of the campaign, exacerbated by the insult video some pollsters claim it will not have any impact and even if, it will be positive,” he stated.
Dankwah used the outcome of primary to emphasise a crucial lesson; the distinction between researchers and pollsters.
