Global research firm Fitch Solutions is projecting another year of strong economic expansion for Ghana in 2026, forecasting real GDP growth of 5.9%, slightly above the already robust 5.8% expected in 2025.
The outlook positions Ghana as one of the fastest-growing emerging markets globally.
Speaking at the 2026 PwC Ghana Post-Budget Forum in Accra on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, said Ghana’s growth prospects remain impressive and are supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals and improved investor confidence.
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” Kruiniger stated.
He explained that the expansion will be driven largely by private consumption and a sustained rebound in fixed investment, which is recovering from the severe contraction recorded in 2023.
“In the medium term—looking beyond 2026—growth is expected to remain healthy at around 5%, supported by expanding domestic demand. Importantly, Ghana’s growth projections are strong not only by its historical standards but also compared to global peers,” he said.
According to Fitch Solutions, Ghana is set to outpace the economic growth of several major emerging markets next year, including mainland China, Indonesia, and Kenya, underscoring what Kruiniger described as “a story of outperformance.”
Despite the upbeat projections, Fitch Solutions warned that escalating Islamist insurgency activity in the Sahel region poses a major downside risk to Ghana’s economic outlook in 2026.
Kruiniger noted that although Ghana has so far remained shielded from violent spillovers—thanks in part to stronger state presence in the north and terrain that is less favourable for militant operations—the threat level is rising.
“So far, Ghana has been relatively shielded from violent spillovers compared to other coastal West African states—Benin, for example,” he said. “But Islamist groups are gaining ground in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, and the risks to Ghana are rising.”
Fitch Solutions warned that if militant activity were to spread southward, Ghana could be forced to increase military spending, which is currently one of the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a shift could strain public finances and weigh on macroeconomic stability.
“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks. But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending,” Kruiniger added.
Despite these risks, Fitch Solutions maintains that Ghana’s economic fundamentals remain strong, with domestic demand, investment recovery and favourable macroeconomic policies setting the stage for continued growth in 2026.
