Dr. Kwame Asah-Asante, a Senior lecturer and political scientist at the University of Ghana says 11 months can change a lot of things in a political atmosphere, and has therefore advised the various political parties to be wary of their dealings heading into the 2024 polls.
His comment comes on the back of a recent survey released by Global InfoAnalytics which places John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
Speaking on Ghana Tonight Thursday, January 04, 2024, with Alfred Ocansey, the political scientist said “eleven months is such a long time that a lot of things can change; there is no doubt about that.”
“Scientific research provides the basis for understanding the issues on the ground, and in this case, helping you [the researcher] gauge the views of the people, what they aspire for, and what type of decision they will make when the time comes. Depending on the questions you put across to them, they will be able to respond appropriately,” he noted.
Background
A latest opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics for the 2024 elections has shown that John Dramani Mahama has taken a huge lead over Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia if elections were held in December 2023.
With almost eleven months to the elections, John Mahama leads in the poll with 53.2% while Dr Mahamudu Bawumia trails on 29.6%. Meanwhile, Former Trade and Industry Minister, Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen who defected from the NPP to run as an independent candidate under the “Movement for Change” had 7.7% support of voters.
While John Mahama latest poll figures resulted in a significant rise from the 48.3% he garnered in a similar survey conducted in October 2023, Vice President Dr. Bawumia saw a marginal rise from the 28% he recorded in the same period with Alan Kyerematen’s 7.7% being a significant drop in the 11.3% he was projected to get from the October poll.
Additionally, nearly 4.2% of voters in the latest poll say they intend to vote for other candidates, a drop from the 7% in the earlier poll, whilst 5.3% remain undecided on their choice for the 2024 election.
Among first time voters, John Mahama leads with 51%, with DMB projected to get some 25% and AKK 8%. 7% of first-time voters intend to vote for other candidates while 9% are undecided.
The latest poll also has Mr. Mahama now leading in all regions except the North-East region where Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s advantage has now narrowed. According to Global Info Analytics, although JDM’s lead in the Ashanti and Eastern regions could be an outlier in the polls, the NPP’s poor performance may reflect growing concern about voter apathy in those regions.
Former President John Mahama’s 24-hour policy according to the polls is the most popular amongst voters. When voters were asked about the 24-hr Economy, Blue Economy/Digitization and Great Transformational Plan, which of those slogans/policies has caught their attention. Approximately 50% said the 24-Hr Economy, 25% said Blue Economy/Digitization, 8% said GTP and 17% said none of them.
The poll also predicts that the NDC is on course to form the Majority in Parliament, as the generic poll predicts 52% of voters planning to vote for the NDC candidates in the 2024 elections, up from 46% in the October 2023 survey while the NPP is currently on 31% compared to 38% recorded in October last year.
On the question of whether NPP can break the eight, 60% of voters said NPP will not break the eight compared to 21% who said yes, they will and 19% did not have an opinion.
The poll was conducted between 22nd- 30th December 2023 with a sample of 5,881 respondents in all the 16 regions and across 82 constituencies.
However, the political scientist says many things can change in a space of 11 months to change the outcome of the survey.
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