In a recent analysis of polling conducted between October 28 and November 2, Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has observed significant challenges facing Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential candidate.
In an interview with Alfred Ocansey on Hot Edition on November 4, he highlighted that while Bawumia enjoys strong support from NPP voters, currently at 95%, “he is facing a notable decline in backing from floating voters, a crucial category for electoral success.”
According to Mussa Dankwah, who analyzed the polling data, “Bawumia’s support among floating voters has decreased to 53%, while his main rival, former President John Mahama, has surged to 67%.”
This shift highlights Bawumia’s struggle to maintain his party’s base while also appealing to undecided voters, who comprise approximately 18% to 20% of the electorate.
The poll indicates a concerning sentiment among undecided voters, with 65% believing the country is heading in the wrong direction and 70% reporting that their living conditions have worsened over the past year.
This sentiment could significantly influence their voting decisions, potentially benefiting the opposition. Among the undecided voters, about 19% are former NPP supporters, compared to only 1% who identify with the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The majority—63%—are classified as floating voters. This suggests that if these individuals remain undecided or choose to switch their support, it could pose a substantial risk to Bawumia’s campaign.
In addition, the NPP’s ambitions in key regions, particularly Ashanti, are not reflected in the latest poll results. The party aims for 85% support in Ashanti, but the poll shows their approval rating at approximately 63%, below the levels achieved in the last election cycle.
Despite President Akufo-Addo’s sustained popularity among NPP supporters, this enthusiasm has not translated into comparable support for Bawumia.
“In fact, the candidate is struggling in traditionally supportive Akan regions, where his popularity is declining while Mahama gains ground,” Mussa Dankwah stated.
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By Christabel Success Treve